New decline in sight in Europe before US inflation


Traders at the headquarters of stock exchange operator Euronext

PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to fall on Thursday in the wake of Wall Street and the main Asian markets, caution being called for before the monthly consumer price figures in the United States, while the report of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve confirmed the latter’s desire to continue raising rates.

Index futures predict a decline of 0.4% for the Dax in Frankfurt, 0.34% for the FTSE 100 in London and 0.45% for the EuroStoxx 50. As for the CAC 40 in Paris, it could yield around 0.4% according to the first indications available.

The big event of the day will be the publication, at 12:30 GMT, of the monthly consumer price statistics (CPI) in the United States. The Reuters consensus expects an increase of 0.2% over one month and 8.1% over one year against +8.3% in August.

On Wednesday, the “minutes” of the September meeting of the US central bank showed that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) remained in favor of a restrictive policy and was more concerned about not doing enough about it than doing it. too much, even if several of its members are committed to limiting the impact of the rise in interest rates on economic activity.

The minutes “did not mark the ‘dove’ turn expected by some market participants,” said Joseph Capursi, head of international economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, in a note. “A possible turning point will depend on the inflation figures.”

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman spoke more forcefully on Wednesday, explaining that she would remain in favor of raising rates if inflation did not show signs of slowing.

While waiting for the CPI, European investors will monitor the evolution of the British markets, on the eve of the scheduled halt to bond purchases decided in emergency at the end of September by the Bank of England, despite the persistent difficulties of certain pension funds. faced with margin calls.

VALUES TO FOLLOW:

AT WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended lower on Wednesday after a seesaw session, the publication of the minutes of the last monetary policy committee of the Fed having favored the decline.

The Dow Jones index fell 0.1%, or 28.34 points, to 29,210.85, the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 0.3% (11.81 points) to 3,577.03 and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 9.09 points (-0.09%) to 10,417.10.

Among the sectors most sensitive to changes in interest rates, the utilities sector lost 3.4% and the real estate sector 1.4%.

On the upside, PepsiCo gained 4.2% after raising its full-year revenue and profit forecast as price hikes did not dampen demand.

Index futures suggest a slightly lower open for now.

IN ASIA

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index lost 0.47% less than an hour from closing, Japanese investors also avoiding risk taking before the American CPI.

Toshiba nevertheless gained 7.83% after information from the Kyodo news agency that a Japanese consortium led by the private equity fund Japan Industrial Partners offered to buy it for 2.8 trillion yen (19.7 billion euros). euros).

In China, stocks are moving in mixed order: the Shanghai SSE Composite gained 0.11% while the CSI 300 gave up 0.39% while in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng lost 1.15%.

CHANGES

The dollar is almost stable in trade in Asia against a basket of benchmark currencies (-0.03%) pending US consumer price figures.

The yen regains some ground against the greenback but remains close to the 24-year low hit at the start of the day at 146.98 to the dollar.

The euro is virtually unchanged at 0.9702 and the pound is stabilizing after the 1.25% rebound it enjoyed on Wednesday, despite questions about the ability of British markets to withstand the halt in emergency purchases of the Bank of England, still scheduled for Friday.

RATE

Yields on US government bonds are up slightly in Asian trading, at 3.921% for the ten-year and 4.3079% for the two-year.

They had retreated on Wednesday after the Fed’s minutes, as the better-than-expected U.S. producer price data had earlier pushed them higher.

OIL

The oil market is moving without a clear trend in Asia after the drop caused on Wednesday by the return to the forefront of concerns about the development of demand, OPEC and the US Department of Energy having both revised down their forecasts in matter.

Brent was practically stable at 92.48 dollars a barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) fell 0.11% to 87.17 dollars.

(Written by Marc Angrand)

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